Mike Shatzkin over at the Idea Logical Blog (http://www.idealog.com/blog) has his own opinion about the future of ebooks. In his view, he sees a more aggressive adoption of ebook readers. He sees an estimate of 50% of book sales being ebooks in 5 years as low. My current views are more conservative.
I do agree with his complaint about DRM technology, and his opinion that ebooks are a good thing. His piece is worth reading to get a different opinion.
One thing I think in particular which is worth noting is how quickly the price of ebook readers is coming down competition is a good thing. I’m not surprised that the prices are coming down. If you’d asked me earlier I would have told you that ebook reader prices would eventually come down to $100. If the prices drops that are currently happening continue, we could see ebook readers for less than $100.
But there is one fly in the ointment: I suspect that currently ebook reader devices are being subsidized by the high price of ebooks. If the price of ebooks go down, the price of the readers may need to go up. (And some device manufacturers will likely go out of business.)
There will be much change in this market.